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Post by joyinvirginia on Aug 28, 2019 21:08:40 GMT -5
Dorian went from a tropical storm to a hurricane today. it is to the east of Puerto Rico thank goodness! Hitting Virgin Islands and heading for the Bahamas then Florida east coast somewhere on Labor Day weekend? not sure this many days out. If you are in an area that MIGHT be affected, do the basics. make sure you have medications, gas in the car, some cash on hand, important papers handy, pet food and carrier handy if needed. For good info on track, check with National Hurricane Center www.nhc.noaa.gov/Mike's Weather Page spaghettimodels.com/and Bobbi Storms hurricane harbor blog. hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/?m=1And here is link to good article that explains what spaghetti models are and where they come from: amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/08/29/weather/spaghetti-models-explainer-hurricanes-trnd/index.html
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Post by papermoon on Aug 28, 2019 22:45:55 GMT -5
Thanks for posting this thread. I would add to also have paperwork showing current pet vaccinations, in case you end up in a shelter.
When Dorian heads out into the Atlantic, it is predicted to build up force before veering west again and hitting mainland US.
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Post by joyinvirginia on Aug 29, 2019 8:07:23 GMT -5
Good point, papermoon! too soon to know where landfall will be, we will know more by Saturday. I'm watching the Weather Channel and seeing where jim Cantore will go for live reports. Cantore is the Weather Channel reporter who usually goes to areas they think will be hardest hit. Today he is still in the tv studio in Atlanta.
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Post by mylittlescholar on Aug 29, 2019 10:14:23 GMT -5
Thanks! I heard the stores are starting to feel the impact of people stocking up. I need to check my battery supply, though I am so far inland the impact is usually just lots of rain and thunderstorms. And remember to charge up my phone.
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Post by papermoon on Aug 29, 2019 19:57:52 GMT -5
Today the BBC News reports that Dorian is predicted to grow to a Category 4 hurricane. Right now it's at Category 1 and gaining force.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best, and be safe!
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Post by joyinvirginia on Aug 29, 2019 21:12:34 GMT -5
Mike of Mike's Weather Page follows all the models of a possible track. most times he says the European model is more accurate when it comes to predicting than other models.
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Post by papermoon on Aug 29, 2019 23:07:29 GMT -5
Thursday night, Dorian has increased to Category 2. Landfall is expected on Saturday.
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Post by joyinvirginia on Aug 30, 2019 11:34:26 GMT -5
Latest from NHC, Dorian has slowed down. Landfall might be Monday? Tuesday? I love BobbiStorms blog, she talks about history. in the past there was Hurricane David that followed the coast north from Florida to New England. In the past there was also Hurricane Betsy that twisted and turned in the Caribbean before crossing over florida, into the Gulf of Mexico, and hit Louisiana. Very interesting read: hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2019/08/friday-hurricane-dorian-forecast-to.html?m=1It's still too soon to know exactly which way Dorian will go, except somewhere in florida to start with.
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Post by papermoon on Aug 30, 2019 23:54:00 GMT -5
OK, this is looking seriously bad now. This morning, Dorian grew to a Category 3 "Major" Hurricane, with winds at 115 mph. Tonight it has rapidly grown into Category 4, with winds at 140 mph. The scary part is the rapidly plummeting interior pressure... once that pressure drops from the low 1000s to the high 900s, things start getting really serious. This morning it was down to 970, and tonight it has dropped further to 948. Movement of the storm over the warm ocean has slowed to 10 mph, heading west-northwest. This slowness means that the hurricane has the chance to suck up an unimaginably massive quantity of water, which will be more far destructive than the wind force when it finally hits land. As of yet, they are unable to predict where it will hit, but I'm afraid it will be a killer. www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Post by joyinvirginia on Aug 31, 2019 9:14:08 GMT -5
Dorian just can't make up her mind! and it's moving closer and getting bigger and this morning NHS says she might move up the east coast. We are close enough to the coast in Virginia that I'm starting hurricane prep, just in case. Fill up the cars with gas, keep up with laundry, check prescription refills, go by the bank and get out a little extra cash, have a couple buckets on hand to fill with water to flush toilets if power goes out. Pick up anything outside that could be a projectile if wind gets really bad. I don't buy water, I fill pitchers and water bottles with water and keep in fridge. empty the freezer in case we lose power. fill some freezer bags with ice. I have this tee shirt from a 2016 fund raiser on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It says "Hurricane Matthew-should have turned right!" Hurricane Matthew moved north along the coast, made landfall in South Carolina, and proceeded on to North Carolina. Where it caused much wind damage in the Outer Banks, and flooding all over NC from the massive amounts of rain a hurricane or tropical storm brings. everyone in OBX thought hooray, it's going to miss us! Didn't make that right turn. From NHS: Paragraph about 2016 inland NC flooding due to Hurricane Matthew: "Rivers rose to all-time record levels in many locations with severe and life-threatening impacts occuring. Much like happened during Hurricane Floyd in 1999, flooding occurred well outside of typical river floodplains into areas that residents did not believe could flood. In North Carolina Matthew's flood damage estimated at $1.5 billion." www.weather.gov/ilm/Matthew
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Post by papermoon on Aug 31, 2019 15:43:27 GMT -5
Saturday late afternoon.... Dorian continues to grow in size and force. Wind speed is now up 150 mph. If it exceeds 156, it will be reclassified as a Category 5 Hurricane, which is the strongest on the scale. Interior pressure has dropped to 945. At present, movement is due west and is still slow (8 mph) as it gathers up more water into the funnel. Ever-changing forecasts of its path are literally all over the map. joyinvirginia , it sounds like you're doing all the smart things to prepare.
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Post by joyinvirginia on Aug 31, 2019 16:37:13 GMT -5
Thanks papermoon! It's not so much the wind, although that's bad enough, its the massive unbelievable amount of rain that comes down in torrents. floods roads, rivers, weakens tree roots so the trees fall over, and so on.
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Post by Unswamping on Aug 31, 2019 18:39:46 GMT -5
joyinvirginia i hope this moves out to sea and you arent impacted. Great idea to start prepping now.
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Post by papermoon on Sept 1, 2019 18:57:53 GMT -5
Sunday early evening... As you may have already heard, Dorian has grown into a monster Category 5 Hurricane, with winds at 185 mph! I've never heard of winds that high. I think they need to create a Category 6 level, because Dorian is nearly 30 mph more fierce than Cat 5, literally off the charts. Pressure has dropped way down to 910. Dorian is still moving very slowly due west and is currently tearing the northern Bahamas islands to shreds. Forecasters keep trying to calm people in Florida with predictions of a northern turn any minute now, but Dorian hasn't budged an inch from its due west course.
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Post by papermoon on Sept 1, 2019 19:07:20 GMT -5
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